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Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Crof : Thinking about H5N1

As I have always said in the past, one of my main reasons to start blogging would be the excellent writings by Crof in his blog H5n1. Many of us in flu / diseases blogging world would agree that Crof's writing is something all of us look up to.

And his post today (as per the title) is no different. His in dept look and analysis about H5N1 / Avian Influenza has my jaw dropping all over the place and I'm pretty sure many of you, readers would to. Excellent as always. Anyway here's a clip from his post, please go to his site to read the rest. Thank you Crof!

" Today (August 3), WHO published its latest Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO.

I've been following this table for over five years. The more I look at it, the more questions I have.

For example, why did three Iraqis catch H5N1 early in 2006, why did two of them die, and why did H5N1 then vanish from Iraq? And why did eight Azerbaijanis also catch it that year, with five of them dying, and nothing since then?

Why did H5N1 start in China in 2003 and sputter along with a maximum of 13 cases (and 8 deaths) in 2006, for a total of 39 cases and 26 deaths? And why did Indonesia, with a fraction of China's population, suffer relatively far more cases and deaths?

Look again at Indonesia: 20 cases in 2005, 55 in 2006, 42 in 2007, 24 in 2008, 21 in 2009, and just 6 cases when we're more than halfway through 2010. The peak was four years ago, and it was a paltry 55 cases; more people likely died that year in Jakarta traffic."

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